Alexa is an organisation that publishes stats about the popularity of websites and ranks them accordingly. One of the stats they publish is the number of visitors a website has on a daily basis. To some extend we can use this stat as a indicator for the status of a program.

The idea behind this is that a program is a potential ponzi scheme and as such its succes is determined by the popularity of the website. This view is not uncommon in the investment arena. Treating every program like it is a ponzi scheme will help you to maximize profits while taking as little risk as possible.

More visitors means more money is coming in

If more money comes in than goes out the ponzi is growing and the scammers will keep it running in order to build up their ecurrency accounts. The moment the popularity decreases the incoming money flow decreases and a scammer will start to ponder what the best time would be to run off with all that stolen money. Maximizing the stolen sum is what it is all about.

Even traffic that remains constant is a bad sign because over time the invested capital increases (compounding) and thus withdrawals will increase as well. Yet the influx of fresh capital does not grow. Also keep in mind that most investors will withdraw their seed money as soon as possible, creating a bigger need for fresh capital.

Higher ROI means quicker responses

The higher the Return On Investment is, the more valid this indicator is. If there are less visitors spending less money (investments and reinvestments) than the money the ponzi has locked in quickly dries up. You can expect some sort of reaction pretty quickly.

Mind you that this does not prove that a program actually is a ponzi, it just says that IF it is a ponzi you know what to expect.

An example

Let me show you with an example. Lets look at the GoldNuggetInvest statistics. Open up the following link:

   http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/goldnuggetinvest.com

Set trailing to 6 months and you should see a graph like the one below:



As you can see the website visitors graph shows a decline that starts around begin January 2010. Not good. Besides the hacker issues GNI posts about in this period they also send out the following information:

In their 6 January update they only mentioned they would stop with the weekly rollover plan. That is a red flag.

In their 16 January update they mention other problems like Referral Program Abuse and most importantly, the restructuring of the GNI programs. Bam! More red flags.

On 29 January there is an update talking about issues with StrictPay. GDP is introduced (most likely to attract more fresh capital). New is also the charity program, most likely designed for stealing donations from members.

In the following weeks we get some fake emails from the GNI hacker, but the next real update is from 27 February. That is way too much time in between the updates. The update is basically about keeping money locked in and atrracting more fresh capital. Payments are delayed and they installed the Deposit Repurchase Program. This is when alarm bells really start to go off. By then it is already to late because GNI initiated their exit plan already.

Exit plans take time - expect delay tactics

Getting everybody to deposit is one thing, getting it out of the e-currency processors into their bank accounts another! Big transfers draw attention so it is not unlikely that they gradually withdraw money from those accounts. That takes time so expect delay tactics from here on out, until they leave the stage.

The uncertainty and doubts investors have show in the Alexa graph by the larger amplitudes. As people read the updates from GNI, blogposts from others etc. they try to visit the website to check if they are still there or to place a withdrawal order.

Looking at this in retrospect you should have cashed out half November 2009. If you’re the nervous type of investor you should have cashed out half november, right after the dip you see in the chart. This might have been coincidence but the fact remains that you would have been safe if you cashed out at that point.

In conclusion

The Alexa visitor statistics can be used as in indicator for the health of a ponzi scheme. The more investors a program has and the higher the ROI, the more reliable this indicator becomes.

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